On Brexit and the Rock…

Usually, you’d expect the younger generation to want to shake things up, whilst the older cleaves hard to the status quo. To my mind, the strangest thing about the build-up towards the EU referendum is that it has felt like the reverse. Somehow, the ‘Absolutely Fabulous’ model has sprung to life, millions of sensible Saffies shaking their heads at millions of rebellious Eddies. Younger people seem better able to shelve ideals of past British glories and look pragmatically at where we are now; the older harbour decades of resentment against Brussels which they finally have a chance to air. Talking to people from Gibraltar, however, the young/old divide does not seem to exist. There is almost universal support for the UK to remain in the EU. This is wholly understandable: twin worries await the Rock if Leave wins the day. First, the financial services industry that has built up so successfully on the Rock will no longer be able to sell its products into the Eurozone. Second, Spain won’t feel compelled to keep its border open with Gibraltar – either they could close it altogether, or use it as a bargaining chip to try and secure joint sovereignty of the Rock with Britain (or England?). The irony that reopening the Spanish/Gib border in 1985 was a condition of the UK allowing Spain to join the EC in the first place will echo loud across the Bay of Gibraltar… So what if the vote turns out to be as close as people say? Perhaps the Rock’s 30,000 voters will alter the course of the UK once more – just as in the Napoleonic Wars, and in WW2. The 2.5 square miles at the south of Iberian peninsula may yet again yield a disproportionate and vital influence. We shall see…